five years of traffic

Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Path: utzoo!henry
From: he...@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer)
Newsgroups: net.news
Subject: five years of traffic
Message-ID: <6913@utzoo.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 9-Jul-86 17:12:58 EDT
Article-I.D.: utzoo.6913
Posted: Wed Jul  9 17:12:58 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 9-Jul-86 17:12:58 EDT
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
Lines: 1973

For those of you with a statistical bent, here's some data compiled from
our news archives.  We archive news onto tape, and keep one-line-per-article
indexes on disk.  We joined Usenet pretty early, in the spring of 1981, so
we've been doing this for five years now.  The indexes alone now total over
35 megabytes.  Until early this year, we archived and indexed *everything*;
we are now more selective.  Some discussions at Usenix prompted me to run
some statistics on the indexes.  In particular, I was curious to see what
the growth pattern looked like.  Extracting this data was enough of a
hassle that I thought others might be interested in getting it.

I analyzed only the indexes from the archive-everything days, ending this
March.  The total is about 477000 articles.  This includes some local groups
that don't get out to the world, but they're minor.  Appended below is the
day-by-day volume.  Field 1 is day number, with 0 == 1-Jan-1981.  Field 2
is article count.  Field 3, when present, is a 30-day total article count
for convenience.  The articles were allocated to days based on the "date"
fields of our index entries; the derivation of this field has changed a
bit over the years, but if you think of it as arrival date at utzoo you
won't be far wrong.  There are a few anomalies due to temporary news
feed problems, but the trend is still visible.  (No, I don't have data
based on the posting date.)  The traffic for the first little while is all
local, unusually heavy because news was used to record the details of our
V7 conversion.  The first outside article arrived on day 132; if you assume
that local articles are negligible after that, you won't go far wrong.
Traffic for about the first year will be underestimated some because
we did not get some of the more voluminous groups.  (Our network link at
the time was 300-baud manually-dialed.)  The last ten days or so of data
are only things that expired early, so they are best ignored.

Plotting the data gives quite interesting results.  The day-by-day
variation in volume is large even recently.  The overall trend, as you
might expect, is upward.  I think I can see the two sets of newsgroup
cuts we made during the first year, and the arrival of our 1200-baud
autodialer in mid-82.  There's too much scatter for me to be sure about
our more recent newsgroup cuts, but I think I can see them too.  You
might be able to fit an exponential curve to the overall trend, but it
looks more to me like a slow start and then near-linear growth.  Since
mid-82 volume has been increasing at roughly 5000 articles/month/year.
I'd be interested in any more refined conclusions from the statisticians
out there.

-----------
0	0
1	0
2	0
3	0
4	0
5	0
6	0
7	0
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0
17	0
18	0
19	0
20	0
21	0
22	0
23	0
24	0
25	0
26	0
27	0
28	0
29	0
30	0	0
31	0
32	0
33	0
34	0
35	0
36	8
37	0
38	11
39	15
40	2
41	0
42	9
43	6
44	0
45	12
46	6
47	8
48	4
49	3
50	9
51	0
52	12
53	8
54	3
55	0
56	0
57	0
58	0
59	0
60	0	116
61	0
62	0
63	0
64	0
65	0
66	14
67	11
68	2
69	7
70	6
71	1
72	0
73	0
74	0
75	0
76	0
77	0
78	0
79	0
80	0
81	1
82	9
83	6
84	9
85	3
86	5
87	0
88	5
89	8
90	6	93
91	9
92	4
93	0
94	9
95	5
96	13
97	9
98	7
99	1
100	0
101	12
102	26
103	9
104	12
105	5
106	6
107	3
108	1
109	8
110	15
111	3
112	5
113	4
114	1
115	2
115	13
116	13
117	8
118	8
119	4
120	0	215
121	2
122	4
123	2
124	10
125	4
126	2
127	1
128	3
129	4
130	7
131	13
132	6
133	14
134	4
135	2
136	1
137	20
138	9
139	11
140	11
141	10
142	5
143	12
144	13
145	15
146	20
147	12
148	13
149	10
150	15	255
151	19
152	20
153	13
154	18
155	13
156	12
157	25
158	25
159	28
160	29
161	42
162	24
163	29
164	22
165	23
166	31
167	24
168	5
169	3
170	0
171	18
172	27
173	13
174	22
175	11
176	14
177	5
178	10
179	20
180	14	559
181	11
182	9
183	10
184	7
185	11
186	14
187	13
188	23
189	18
190	0
191	8
192	18
193	7
194	13
195	21
196	10
197	13
198	9
199	6
200	5
201	16
202	18
203	8
204	6
205	5
206	14
207	5
208	9
209	18
210	22	347
211	10
212	2
213	3
214	7
215	9
216	16
217	8
218	3
219	4
220	27
221	19
222	14
223	18
224	12
225	3
226	7
227	10
228	23
229	11
230	16
231	14
232	3
233	2
234	6
235	15
236	13
237	20
238	8
239	9
240	7	319
241	19
242	20
243	15
244	12
245	18
246	8
247	2
248	3
249	32
250	20
251	30
252	25
253	6
254	5
255	5
256	36
257	15
258	29
259	12
260	11
261	7
262	17
263	38
264	23
265	28
266	17
267	21
268	13
269	11
270	26	524
271	28
272	24
273	24
274	14
275	14
276	30
277	25
278	24
279	19
280	15
281	7
282	11
283	18
284	8
285	8
286	60
287	20
288	5
289	4
290	11
291	15
292	20
293	20
294	16
295	14
296	2
297	0
298	19
299	55
300	31	561
301	32
302	7
303	26
304	34
305	47
306	22
307	22
308	12
309	20
310	10
311	4
312	21
313	48
314	38
315	51
316	19
317	6
318	22
319	20
320	24
321	21
322	26
323	32
324	7
325	15
326	16
327	22
328	21
329	8
330	4	657
331	3
332	10
333	26
334	18
335	23
336	29
337	33
338	16
339	24
340	35
341	34
342	29
343	53
344	44
345	25
346	26
347	39
348	40
349	51
350	62
351	82
352	35
353	4
354	47
355	25
356	28
357	20
358	10
359	41
360	102	1014
361	15
362	24
363	32
364	17
365	16
366	11
367	15
368	50
369	41
370	45
371	58
372	34
373	30
374	14
375	34
376	81
377	60
378	90
379	52
380	62
381	49
382	61
383	79
384	73
385	79
386	59
387	41
388	13
389	34
390	17	1286
391	43
392	40
393	69
394	31
395	22
396	63
397	71
398	52
399	83
400	69
401	31
402	23
403	81
404	77
405	65
406	62
407	37
408	0
409	0
410	14
411	58
412	60
413	68
414	67
415	25
416	25
417	50
418	57
419	58
420	61	1462
421	44
422	29
423	22
424	72
425	60
426	44
427	60
428	54
429	34
430	27
431	25
432	70
433	48
434	55
435	60
436	23
437	20
438	71
439	36
440	43
441	53
442	30
443	13
444	13
445	52
446	43
447	46
448	53
449	28
450	25	1253
451	21
452	35
453	50
454	40
455	37
456	58
457	20
458	32
459	42
460	56
461	47
462	51
463	39
464	10
465	10
466	4
467	60
468	66
469	85
470	64
471	27
472	34
473	50
474	80
475	55
476	91
477	68
478	40
479	46
479	66
480	63	1447
481	61
482	69
483	59
484	9
485	28
486	46
487	75
488	66
489	80
490	60
491	24
492	43
493	125
494	104
495	98
496	104
497	96
498	97
499	33
500	41
501	93
502	32
503	103
504	12
505	0
506	0
507	2
508	11
509	4
510	3	1578
511	4
512	211
513	56
514	34
515	38
516	75
517	86
518	66
519	116
520	34
521	53
522	108
523	103
524	126
525	155
526	62
527	147
528	51
529	72
530	95
531	90
532	69
533	45
534	112
535	30
536	115
537	6
538	122
539	5
540	5	2291
541	296
542	328
543	206
544	160
545	109
546	103
547	109
548	41
549	56
550	39
551	77
552	81
553	137
554	2
555	104
556	39
557	94
558	54
559	73
560	74
561	104
562	100
563	77
564	11
565	8
566	10
567	10
568	16
569	266
570	132	2916
571	56
572	63
573	143
574	98
575	175
576	94
577	130
578	92
579	120
580	137
581	12
582	5
583	264
584	124
585	97
586	23
587	115
588	83
589	85
590	140
591	17
592	77
593	9
594	10
595	141
596	114
597	60
598	16
599	12
600	8	2520
601	11
602	10
603	0
604	0
605	8
606	7
607	4
608	3
609	2
610	0
611	209
612	100
613	23
614	248
615	186
616	164
617	92
618	48
619	66
620	96
621	70
622	132
623	103
624	0
625	3
626	12
627	203
628	298
629	60
630	12	2170
631	1
632	4
633	70
634	10
635	6
636	140
637	4
638	0
639	2
640	3
641	4
642	5
643	26
644	102
645	2
646	0
647	10
648	76
649	7
650	43
651	113
652	4
653	133
654	6
655	4
656	171
657	96
658	139
659	193
660	49	1423
661	60
662	11
663	333
664	215
665	140
666	118
667	106
668	0
669	79
670	199
671	208
672	219
673	197
674	163
675	48
676	60
677	234
678	215
679	5
680	272
681	5
682	6
683	213
684	186
685	198
686	227
687	50
688	280
689	114
690	93	4254
691	117
692	90
693	249
694	65
695	67
696	102
697	72
698	136
699	231
700	79
701	150
702	239
703	223
704	120
705	205
706	112
707	218
708	171
709	222
710	192
711	166
712	166
713	142
714	19
715	160
716	68
717	240
718	77
719	216
720	178	4492
721	246
722	175
723	0
724	1
725	152
726	66
727	135
728	122
729	162
730	103
731	47
732	27
733	136
734	108
735	140
736	139
737	144
738	72
739	72
740	67
741	143
742	131
743	117
744	124
745	75
746	56
747	78
748	163
749	153
750	179	3333
751	142
752	128
753	140
754	0
755	7
756	109
757	248
758	192
759	283
760	89
761	138
762	182
763	190
764	79
765	39
766	190
767	110
768	48
769	149
770	25
771	211
772	144
773	125
774	11
775	74
776	195
777	147
778	157
779	68
780	341	3961
781	259
782	208
783	158
784	276
785	202
786	125
787	118
788	67
789	208
790	146
791	16
792	2
793	3
794	2
795	4
796	211
797	142
798	179
799	300
800	185
801	117
802	77
803	56
804	27
805	87
806	99
807	4
808	3
809	8
810	160	3449
811	244
812	173
813	152
814	225
815	102
816	71
817	205
818	158
819	159
820	200
821	174
822	153
823	95
824	181
825	196
826	200
827	168
828	180
829	157
830	113
831	173
832	190
833	36
834	135
835	70
836	199
837	228
838	152
839	160
840	55	4704
841	248
842	109
843	107
843	288
844	11
845	93
846	170
847	233
848	245
849	8
850	159
851	61
852	45
853	130
854	11
855	14
856	3
857	9
858	29
859	113
860	9
861	195
862	117
863	9
864	7
865	275
866	60
867	205
868	9
869	38
870	5	3015
871	8
872	22
873	19
874	17
875	58
876	96
877	187
878	9
879	4
880	7
881	0
882	59
883	96
884	0
885	177
886	321
887	360
888	299
889	146
890	283
891	125
892	147
893	302
894	367
895	404
896	144
897	374
898	202
899	82
900	228	4543
901	333
902	204
903	265
904	266
905	139
906	347
907	216
908	260
909	285
910	286
911	162
912	139
913	104
914	40
915	31
916	618
917	231
918	415
919	79
920	185
921	332
922	196
923	238
924	324
925	182
926	189
927	128
928	277
929	210
930	257	6938
931	353
932	178
933	119
934	153
935	156
936	269
937	139
938	178
939	12
940	52
941	382
942	109
943	238
944	209
945	206
946	256
947	146
948	220
949	263
950	200
951	274
952	231
953	323
954	231
955	180
956	284
957	282
958	301
959	251
960	213	6408
961	261
962	197
963	117
964	343
965	148
966	386
967	332
968	107
969	307
970	303
971	210
972	449
973	290
974	379
975	163
976	156
977	117
978	60
979	99
980	86
981	123
982	68
983	94
984	123
985	183
986	149
987	147
988	260
989	206
990	146	6009
991	193
992	271
993	177
994	332
995	162
996	130
997	442
998	218
999	376
1000	360
1001	287
1002	55
1003	516
1004	154
1005	178
1006	58
1007	269
1008	284
1009	84
1010	521
1011	195
1012	107
1013	164
1014	483
1015	367
1016	169
1017	247
1018	116
1019	361
1020	190	7466
1021	364
1022	185
1023	399
1024	291
1025	141
1026	293
1027	311
1028	284
1029	243
1030	17
1031	7
1032	0
1033	313
1034	20
1035	16
1036	285
1037	288
1038	103
1039	629
1040	355
1041	372
1042	346
1043	244
1044	333
1045	287
1046	367
1047	174
1048	418
1049	196
1050	381	7662
1051	76
1052	363
1053	237
1054	151
1055	321
1056	344
1057	31
1058	186
1059	309
1060	270
1061	231
1062	103
1063	304
1064	475
1065	365
1066	125
1067	562
1068	135
1069	132
1070	116
1071	93
1072	661
1073	434
1074	351
1075	11
1076	532
1077	238
1078	281
1079	351
1080	546	8334
1081	364
1082	68
1083	302
1084	337
1085	233
1086	314
1087	262
1088	97
1089	79
1090	94
1091	53
1092	122
1093	115
1094	276
1095	124
1096	140
1097	66
1098	310
1099	201
1100	408
1101	424
1102	335
1103	137
1104	217
1105	394
1106	184
1107	468
1108	408
1109	452
1110	230	7214
1111	253
1112	348
1113	359
1114	240
1115	682
1116	155
1117	264
1118	46
1119	7
1120	12
1121	956
1122	481
1123	104
1124	12
1125	305
1126	140
1127	229
1128	102
1129	7
1130	338
1131	58
1132	534
1133	1059
1134	920
1135	884
1136	502
1137	56
1138	27
1139	169
1140	491	9740
1141	221
1142	448
1143	576
1144	263
1145	311
1146	344
1147	307
1148	346
1149	415
1150	339
1151	299
1152	102
1153	308
1154	268
1155	102
1156	777
1157	456
1158	490
1159	180
1160	367
1161	433
1162	417
1163	239
1164	543
1165	170
1166	111
1167	487
1168	431
1169	331
1170	428	10509
1171	321
1172	270
1173	238
1174	373
1175	517
1176	415
1177	446
1178	38
1179	1219
1180	280
1181	370
1182	464
1183	195
1184	733
1185	575
1186	395
1187	96
1188	199
1189	157
1190	521
1191	106
1192	1002
1193	246
1194	275
1195	188
1196	660
1197	237
1198	736
1199	94
1200	684	12050
1201	49
1202	405
1203	364
1204	365
1205	456
1206	324
1207	292
1208	320
1209	424
1210	56
1211	177
1212	422
1213	446
1214	272
1214	323
1215	363
1216	404
1217	335
1218	718
1219	326
1220	233
1221	161
1222	366
1223	551
1224	134
1225	211
1226	835
1227	492
1228	236
1229	238
1230	540	10838
1231	518
1232	652
1233	363
1234	227
1235	577
1236	316
1237	403
1238	38
1239	79
1240	622
1241	15
1242	138
1243	9
1244	173
1245	368
1246	1427
1247	629
1248	15
1249	31
1250	469
1251	761
1252	471
1253	57
1254	228
1255	354
1256	212
1257	347
1258	517
1259	423
1260	362	10801
1261	224
1262	7
1263	22
1264	203
1265	139
1266	895
1267	1140
1268	326
1269	37
1270	46
1271	89
1272	605
1273	748
1274	1
1275	740
1276	555
1277	134
1278	334
1279	414
1280	158
1281	232
1282	519
1283	292
1284	196
1285	524
1286	380
1287	494
1288	571
1289	524
1290	420	10969
1291	227
1292	360
1293	538
1294	447
1295	487
1296	339
1297	474
1298	259
1299	184
1300	20
1301	11
1302	725
1303	1245
1304	160
1305	249
1306	98
1307	45
1308	32
1309	270
1310	653
1311	400
1312	191
1313	52
1314	535
1315	393
1316	496
1317	332
1318	326
1319	239
1320	510	10297
1321	329
1322	569
1323	235
1324	399
1325	653
1326	211
1327	270
1328	486
1329	443
1330	251
1331	520
1332	159
1333	99
1334	171
1335	247
1336	1106
1337	175
1338	673
1339	8
1340	540
1341	82
1342	12
1343	380
1344	46
1345	25
1346	13
1347	25
1348	30
1349	392
1350	504	9053
1351	960
1352	128
1353	566
1354	24
1355	33
1356	34
1357	26
1358	24
1359	29
1360	12
1361	24
1362	1803
1363	1350
1364	456
1365	459
1366	450
1367	449
1368	249
1369	312
1370	481
1371	731
1372	392
1373	610
1374	321
1375	207
1376	341
1377	338
1378	409
1379	359
1380	798	12375
1381	265
1382	123
1383	454
1384	470
1385	309
1386	391
1387	215
1388	705
1389	173
1390	405
1391	432
1392	277
1393	500
1394	335
1395	405
1396	0
1397	254
1398	353
1399	367
1400	473
1401	442
1402	811
1403	165
1404	178
1405	502
1406	261
1407	680
1408	373
1409	847
1410	262	11427
1411	138
1412	567
1413	214
1414	466
1415	339
1416	643
1417	322
1418	191
1419	322
1420	408
1421	487
1422	251
1423	198
1424	202
1425	198
1426	245
1427	597
1428	412
1429	663
1430	418
1431	596
1432	48
1433	822
1434	285
1435	648
1436	487
1437	464
1438	408
1439	418
1440	454	11911
1441	457
1442	536
1443	548
1444	485
1445	440
1446	268
1447	418
1448	392
1449	488
1450	477
1451	416
1452	529
1453	108
1454	89
1455	65
1456	300
1457	246
1458	372
1459	201
1460	168
1461	205
1462	74
1463	443
1464	477
1465	491
1466	211
1467	294
1468	487
1469	507
1470	134	10326
1471	613
1472	1006
1473	452
1474	599
1475	495
1476	552
1477	465
1478	604
1479	487
1480	509
1481	614
1482	424
1483	747
1484	628
1485	715
1486	205
1487	623
1488	532
1489	390
1490	692
1491	472
1492	362
1493	1233
1494	429
1495	289
1496	257
1497	474
1498	623
1499	461
1500	838	16790
1501	519
1502	571
1503	465
1504	757
1505	581
1506	504
1507	373
1508	467
1509	453
1510	365
1511	444
1512	509
1513	737
1514	149
1515	437
1516	122
1517	751
1518	1250
1519	356
1520	927
1521	438
1522	567
1523	764
1524	357
1525	465
1526	430
1527	418
1528	738
1529	615
1530	481	16010
1531	635
1532	368
1533	483
1534	511
1535	526
1536	711
1537	303
1538	421
1539	482
1540	520
1541	530
1542	780
1543	267
1544	264
1545	540
1546	331
1547	675
1548	397
1549	538
1550	422
1551	284
1552	721
1553	489
1554	447
1555	676
1556	436
1557	619
1558	297
1559	528
1560	527	14728
1561	400
1562	390
1563	553
1564	430
1565	482
1566	302
1567	328
1568	695
1569	376
1570	795
1571	540
1572	416
1573	403
1574	530
1575	458
1576	628
1577	674
1578	602
1578	320
1579	475
1580	551
1581	483
1582	738
1583	772
1584	256
1585	361
1586	583
1587	528
1588	484
1589	863
1590	609	16025
1591	581
1592	386
1593	491
1594	349
1595	1180
1596	677
1597	337
1598	646
1599	275
1600	436
1601	313
1602	509
1603	975
1604	661
1605	335
1606	323
1607	53
1608	167
1609	1064
1610	638
1611	1116
1612	358
1613	225
1614	391
1615	238
1616	1094
1617	375
1618	491
1619	641
1620	1215	16540
1621	559
1622	504
1623	634
1624	497
1625	697
1626	392
1627	411
1628	637
1629	399
1630	644
1631	389
1632	99
1633	1140
1634	445
1635	297
1636	527
1637	626
1638	352
1639	723
1640	482
1641	454
1642	324
1643	608
1644	427
1645	749
1646	341
1647	231
1648	258
1649	412
1650	109	14367
1651	842
1652	608
1653	1452
1654	244
1655	423
1656	161
1657	1006
1658	957
1659	375
1660	1401
1661	634
1662	405
1663	179
1664	498
1665	1055
1666	754
1667	470
1668	887
1669	535
1670	289
1671	1032
1672	849
1673	678
1674	1057
1675	665
1676	173
1677	701
1678	516
1679	130
1680	171	19147
1681	457
1682	548
1683	1504
1684	475
1685	696
1686	392
1687	5
1688	591
1689	989
1690	942
1691	1392
1692	199
1693	59
1694	730
1695	1684
1696	1234
1697	272
1698	407
1699	872
1700	436
1701	733
1702	1025
1703	625
1704	386
1705	146
1706	469
1707	804
1708	523
1709	689
1710	435	19719
1711	571
1712	453
1713	698
1714	745
1715	414
1716	951
1717	601
1718	223
1719	357
1720	593
1721	717
1722	731
1723	682
1724	616
1725	254
1726	249
1727	728
1728	342
1729	482
1730	801
1731	738
1732	408
1733	388
1734	707
1735	650
1736	581
1737	612
1738	636
1739	532
1740	308	16768
1741	538
1742	323
1743	383
1744	1596
1745	201
1746	597
1747	724
1748	334
1749	792
1750	613
1751	846
1752	691
1753	480
1754	489
1755	730
1756	714
1757	724
1758	957
1759	137
1760	0
1761	297
1762	364
1763	835
1764	616
1765	517
1766	1080
1767	1065
1768	228
1769	927
1770	66	17864
1771	725
1772	883
1773	403
1774	1020
1775	400
1776	356
1777	518
1778	522
1779	724
1780	629
1781	290
1782	457
1783	355
1784	464
1785	778
1786	39
1787	1046
1788	627
1789	383
1790	373
1791	383
1792	550
1793	736
1794	459
1795	185
1796	184
1797	349
1798	146
1799	850
1800	460	15294
1801	1012
1802	208
1803	283
1804	465
1805	708
1806	453
1807	583
1808	706
1809	251
1810	505
1811	328
1812	522
1813	420
1814	795
1815	670
1816	382
1817	280
1818	115
1819	689
1820	102
1821	20
1822	654
1823	171
1824	129
1825	272
1826	396
1827	256
1828	326
1829	467
1830	376	12544
1831	303
1832	387
1833	676
1834	500
1835	677
1836	573
1837	278
1838	417
1839	635
1840	481
1841	248
1842	956
1843	696
1844	471
1845	526
1846	522
1847	375
1848	887
1849	656
1850	588
1851	735
1852	140
1853	353
1854	260
1855	778
1856	225
1857	1621
1858	277
1859	447
1860	242	15930
1861	638
1862	704
1863	891
1864	134
1865	882
1866	136
1867	866
1868	969
1869	562
1870	883
1871	653
1872	667
1873	391
1874	395
1875	776
1876	372
1877	664
1878	247
1879	394
1880	1007
1881	25
1882	1047
1883	156
1884	1085
1885	1333
1886	560
1887	262
1888	481
1889	631
1890	213	18024
1891	992
1892	986
1893	610
1894	328
1895	446
1896	875
1897	288
1898	920
1899	1346
1900	431
1901	377
1902	525
1903	489
1904	80
1905	920
1906	682
1907	572
1908	169
1909	586
1910	15
1911	1
1912	0
1913	0
1914	1
1915	2
1916	0
1917	0
1918	0
1919	1
1920	1	11643
-----------
-- 
Usenet(n): AT&T scheme to earn
revenue from otherwise-unused	Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
late-night phone capacity.	{allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry